So far this series has focused on a variety of themed election maps, from the standard interactive electoral distribution map to specialized subjects such as party based book buying habits and battleground state issue break down distribution maps. In today’s posting I plan on focusing on an entire web site and not just detailed election polling number maps. The site I will be focusing on today is definitely a treat for statistics lovers. But, even if statistics instill fear into your heart, you definitely should check out this site because I believe it is probably the most complex and most complete election data and information source on the internet.

The fivethirtyeight.com (named after the number of total electoral votes available) is a statistical wonderland. There are tons of charts, graphs, tables and maps covering all aspects of the upcoming elections including the presidential and congressional races. The differing content all provide complex statistical analysis of the current races and are broken up into numerous different presentation formats. As mentioned in the beginning of this post, statistics and numbers are truly the heart of this website.


fivethirtyeight.png

The statistical handling of the polling data is what truly sets this site apart from other sites I have mentioned in previous articles (Google Gallery, Amazon.com, Scientific American). The vast majority of poll maps I have encountered include the raw polling values. This site instead applies a weighted average to those poll numbers based on three methods (paraphrased from their FAQ here. For additional information read this FAQ for further elaboration):

1. They apply a weight based on the pollster’s historical track record.
2. Regression estimates.
3. Inferential rolling trend line.
4. Simulation and historical analysis.

I will not go into great elaboration on these as you can get more from their website about them. I have not found any other websites since I started this series that goes so far in depth to display election polling data. At times the sheer volume of data is overwhelming. Accompanying this volume of information is blog like commentary and analysis on the poll data and trends seen in the data. This is refreshing to get a breakdown and analysis from a different perspective compared to most pundits.

Content wise this site takes the prize. Most of the charts and graphs are easy to figure out while the blog style commentary and analysis is definitely interesting and worth following. The maps on the site are very basic static maps, but serve their purpose in their simplicity. Additional information regarding the interpretation and meaning of the differing content can be found in their FAQ section along with an in-depth break down of how they calculate the weighted averages used.

This site is the most delightful surprise I have found in information offerings covering the 2008 election. Definitely check it out at fivethirtyeight.com. As I have said in previous postings please feel free to leave me your thoughts or interpretations in the comments, and please check back as I will be adding additional content to this series soon.